In a surprise move, reduced the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in short-term loans
RBI has advised banks to offer all customers basic savings association deposit accounts without minimum balance requirements. It has also guided the banks not to charge prepayment penalties on mortgages.
Experts believe that while the repo rate cut will soon be passed on to customers through ease in interest rates, the average cost of funds does not fall out of the same magnitude. On the other hand, they see a marginal impact on the elimination of pre-payment fees that many banks are already not charging any penalties on prepayment.
While some banks such as ICICI Bank, PNB, IDBI Bank, Syndicate Bank and Bank of Baroda have already cut their base rate by 25 basis points each, other lenders are expected to follow suit.
"Deposits raised by banks in the past three years represent about 80 percent of deposits. Thus, the effect of high cost deposits raised in this period will be visible in 2012-13. Therefore, interest margins (NIMS) is expected to fall by 10-15 basis points during 2012-13 as competitive pressures and sluggish credit offtake will reduce pricing power of banks, "says Dharmkirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ratings.
The latest RBI data on 6 april show that deposit growth had retraced to 14.3 percent in the past year, but loan growth remains high at 18.7 percent year on year. If this trend continues and deposit rates are below 16 percent, then there would be pressure on banks' spreads.
SBI will reprice a portion of its deposit base of Rs 10,00,965 crore as domestic deposits is Rs 9,41,432 crore and deposits in foreign offices is Rs 59,533 crore. Of the deposit base is about 47 percent lower cost current account savings account (Casa) deposits that are around Rs 4,47,358 crore, which the bank pays only 4.50 per cent interest rate. Retail deposits, where repricing will occur constitutes 78.56 percent of the total deposit base of Rs 3,88,144 crore.
A Krishna Kumar, Managing Director, State Bank of India said: "Due to the large composition of Casa deposits, tax reduction is expected to affect its margins, only the extent of 6 to 7 basis points for the first few months until the higher cost retail deposits get repriced. "
SBI has the largest home loan book in excess of RS 1 lakh crore by ICICI Bank followed, over Rs 50,000 crore.
Chanda Kochhar, Managing Director & CEO of ICICI Bank said in a release immediately after reducing the rates by 25 basis points, "With the easing of systemic liquidity, we have already seen some correction in wholesale deposit rates. We expect that cost of funds to gradually come down. "She believes that the cost of funds moving in line with the deposit rates.
Squeeze in margins
As far as foreclosure charges as they were perceived as a restrictive practice discourage borrowers from switching to cheaper sources. Experts believe the abolition of these charges, the transmission of monetary policy be much faster than before. They said that this may lead to increase in competition between banks and few of them may see some pressure on return on assets.
Saday Sinha, banking analyst at Kotak Securities pointed out that at present, large banks such as SBI, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, together with all existing housing finance companies do not charge prepayment penalties, the impact on bank earnings will not be very material.
"The abolition of the prepayment penalty or foreclosure charges on variable loans have been made with an objective to reduce the discrimination by banks between existing and new borrowers. We believe it will increase competition between banks and in turn, would result in finer pricing of home loans with variable interest rate. This can benefit the existing borrowers, where banks can not be very interested to reduce lending rates in a declining interest environment. Therefore, many banks are experiencing some pressure on their return on assets, "Sinha said .
Rajiv Mehta, AVP of banking and infrastructure sector at IIFL said: "It would be wise if you look at the portfolio of banks. For PSUs that retail portfolio constituting about 20 percent of the total portfolio. Retail Portfolio will include personal loans, car loans and mortgages and so on. Therefore, if we see the possibility of prepayment penalties case, they would get. In addition, many private and PSU lenders have already fallen out such sanctions before the RBI guidelines. "The analyst believes that as interest rates is concerned, it is too early to see a significant impact on credit offtake demand among consumers to determine which companies would seek loans.
Vivek Mahajan, head of research at Aditya Birla Money said: "This is slightly negative for banks that have large home range, as it will bring them on par with vacation NBFCs."
Q4 earnings
So far, the results announced by HDFC Bank and Industrial Bank mind was robust. HDFC Bank reported a 30.40 percent increase in net profit to RS 1,453 crore for March quarter, thanks to healthy growth in lending. "HDFC Bank has delivered another quarter of margin expansion, healthy deposit growth, stable asset quality and adequate capital with decent return ratios. We expect the bank to witness 24 per cent CAGR in the loan portfolio in FY12-14E," says Kashyap Jhaveri from Emkay Global Financial Services.
Stronger than anticipated fee income helped Indu Mind Bank clock, year-on-year 30 percent growth in PAT. "Apart from improving profitability and strong growth that the bank continues to deliver on all its Cycle II growth strategies, and like HDFC Bank, it is well positioned to deliver strong PAT growth in FY13," said Adarsh Parasrampuria, research analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.
Stock Performance
Interest-sensitive banking shares have outperformed the benchmark Sensex this calendar. BSE bankex rose 33.07 percent year-to-date compared to 11 percent increase in the BSE Sensex. Shares Yes Bank, Industrial Bank mind, Axis Bank and SBI have risen 40-55 per cent. IDBI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bank of India and Canara Bank has gained 38.17 percent, 37.69 percent, 30.56 percent and 30.35 percent, respectively. Major private lenders HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank jumped 29.77 percent and 28.22 percent, respectively.
Nitin Kumar, an analyst with Quant Capital said, "The reduction in rates, which banks will affect their margins with a few basis points. Bank with large home loan portfolios as State Bank of India and ICICI Bank will be affected more than others. Other retail loans like car loans and personal loans are all fixed rate loans where the impact will be minimal. "
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RBI has advised banks to offer all customers basic savings association deposit accounts without minimum balance requirements. It has also guided the banks not to charge prepayment penalties on mortgages.
Experts believe that while the repo rate cut will soon be passed on to customers through ease in interest rates, the average cost of funds does not fall out of the same magnitude. On the other hand, they see a marginal impact on the elimination of pre-payment fees that many banks are already not charging any penalties on prepayment.
While some banks such as ICICI Bank, PNB, IDBI Bank, Syndicate Bank and Bank of Baroda have already cut their base rate by 25 basis points each, other lenders are expected to follow suit.
"Deposits raised by banks in the past three years represent about 80 percent of deposits. Thus, the effect of high cost deposits raised in this period will be visible in 2012-13. Therefore, interest margins (NIMS) is expected to fall by 10-15 basis points during 2012-13 as competitive pressures and sluggish credit offtake will reduce pricing power of banks, "says Dharmkirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ratings.
The latest RBI data on 6 april show that deposit growth had retraced to 14.3 percent in the past year, but loan growth remains high at 18.7 percent year on year. If this trend continues and deposit rates are below 16 percent, then there would be pressure on banks' spreads.
SBI will reprice a portion of its deposit base of Rs 10,00,965 crore as domestic deposits is Rs 9,41,432 crore and deposits in foreign offices is Rs 59,533 crore. Of the deposit base is about 47 percent lower cost current account savings account (Casa) deposits that are around Rs 4,47,358 crore, which the bank pays only 4.50 per cent interest rate. Retail deposits, where repricing will occur constitutes 78.56 percent of the total deposit base of Rs 3,88,144 crore.
A Krishna Kumar, Managing Director, State Bank of India said: "Due to the large composition of Casa deposits, tax reduction is expected to affect its margins, only the extent of 6 to 7 basis points for the first few months until the higher cost retail deposits get repriced. "
SBI has the largest home loan book in excess of RS 1 lakh crore by ICICI Bank followed, over Rs 50,000 crore.
Chanda Kochhar, Managing Director & CEO of ICICI Bank said in a release immediately after reducing the rates by 25 basis points, "With the easing of systemic liquidity, we have already seen some correction in wholesale deposit rates. We expect that cost of funds to gradually come down. "She believes that the cost of funds moving in line with the deposit rates.
Squeeze in margins
As far as foreclosure charges as they were perceived as a restrictive practice discourage borrowers from switching to cheaper sources. Experts believe the abolition of these charges, the transmission of monetary policy be much faster than before. They said that this may lead to increase in competition between banks and few of them may see some pressure on return on assets.
Saday Sinha, banking analyst at Kotak Securities pointed out that at present, large banks such as SBI, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank, together with all existing housing finance companies do not charge prepayment penalties, the impact on bank earnings will not be very material.
"The abolition of the prepayment penalty or foreclosure charges on variable loans have been made with an objective to reduce the discrimination by banks between existing and new borrowers. We believe it will increase competition between banks and in turn, would result in finer pricing of home loans with variable interest rate. This can benefit the existing borrowers, where banks can not be very interested to reduce lending rates in a declining interest environment. Therefore, many banks are experiencing some pressure on their return on assets, "Sinha said .
Rajiv Mehta, AVP of banking and infrastructure sector at IIFL said: "It would be wise if you look at the portfolio of banks. For PSUs that retail portfolio constituting about 20 percent of the total portfolio. Retail Portfolio will include personal loans, car loans and mortgages and so on. Therefore, if we see the possibility of prepayment penalties case, they would get. In addition, many private and PSU lenders have already fallen out such sanctions before the RBI guidelines. "The analyst believes that as interest rates is concerned, it is too early to see a significant impact on credit offtake demand among consumers to determine which companies would seek loans.
Vivek Mahajan, head of research at Aditya Birla Money said: "This is slightly negative for banks that have large home range, as it will bring them on par with vacation NBFCs."
Q4 earnings
So far, the results announced by HDFC Bank and Industrial Bank mind was robust. HDFC Bank reported a 30.40 percent increase in net profit to RS 1,453 crore for March quarter, thanks to healthy growth in lending. "HDFC Bank has delivered another quarter of margin expansion, healthy deposit growth, stable asset quality and adequate capital with decent return ratios. We expect the bank to witness 24 per cent CAGR in the loan portfolio in FY12-14E," says Kashyap Jhaveri from Emkay Global Financial Services.
Stronger than anticipated fee income helped Indu Mind Bank clock, year-on-year 30 percent growth in PAT. "Apart from improving profitability and strong growth that the bank continues to deliver on all its Cycle II growth strategies, and like HDFC Bank, it is well positioned to deliver strong PAT growth in FY13," said Adarsh Parasrampuria, research analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.
Stock Performance
Interest-sensitive banking shares have outperformed the benchmark Sensex this calendar. BSE bankex rose 33.07 percent year-to-date compared to 11 percent increase in the BSE Sensex. Shares Yes Bank, Industrial Bank mind, Axis Bank and SBI have risen 40-55 per cent. IDBI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bank of India and Canara Bank has gained 38.17 percent, 37.69 percent, 30.56 percent and 30.35 percent, respectively. Major private lenders HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank jumped 29.77 percent and 28.22 percent, respectively.
Nitin Kumar, an analyst with Quant Capital said, "The reduction in rates, which banks will affect their margins with a few basis points. Bank with large home loan portfolios as State Bank of India and ICICI Bank will be affected more than others. Other retail loans like car loans and personal loans are all fixed rate loans where the impact will be minimal. "
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