RBI credit policy: Will home loan rates go down?

Interest rates on home loans is unlikely to go down as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to hold rates steady at its mid-quarter review of monetary policy today. The central bank will not cut rates for almost three years. In this period, the rap rate, which is the rate at which banks borrow money from RBI, went up by 3.5 percent to 8.5%.

Only 27 per cent respondents in a survey of bankers' conducted by NDTV Profit said the RBI cut the repo rate by 0.25 per cent today. 94% respondents said the central bank will start cutting rates in April 2012.

But Governor D Subbarao can only surprise the street as he did last week when he cut the cash reserve ratio, the amount of money that the banks must keep with RBI, from 0.75% to 4.75 percent-more than what most analysts had expected.

1) The headline inflation has picked up for the first time in five months in February, but the growth has come on a high food costs, which the central bank is not too uncomfortable. The non-food manufactured inflation, which the central bank uses to assess demand driven price pressures, slowed to a 14-month low of 5.8 percent from 6.7 percent in January.

2) Weak economic momentum, India's economic growth shrink to a three-year low of 6.1 percent in the December-quarter. The pace of economic expansion this fiscal year, snow is setting 7 percent for the first time in three years.

3) Lower taxes is necessary in order to revive sentiment and stimulate investment.


What may prompt the RBI to hold rates:

1) India's factory output grew its fastest in seven months in January, driven by surge in manufacturing, including consumer non-durables.

2) A recent rally in global oil that threatens to derail India's slowing inflation is also expected to encourage the central bank to leave interest rates on hold for another month at least.

3) The need for clarity in the government fiscal roadmap would avoid the RBI to cut rates before the April-June quarter. The government is prepared to lose this fiscal year deficit target of 4.6 per cent of GDP by a wide margin.


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