Australian home-loan approvals fell for a second month at the fastest exodus of first home buyers in a decade, an increasing pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates as consumer confidence weakened.
The number of loans to build or buy houses and apartments fell 2.5 percent in February from a month earlier, the biggest decline since March 2011, said the statistics office in Sydney today. A private survey showed consumer confidence fell to an eight-month low as regards mounting among mortgage holders will pay the highest borrowing costs across the major developed countries.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens signaled last week that he may end up with a three-month pause in rate cuts as soon as next month if the weaker than expected growth decreases inflation. The central bank lowered borrowing costs in november and december, to 4.25 percent, to shore up the housing market, support employment and boost confidence among consumers, who save more.
The data "emphasizes a rather soft belly in relation to the Australian household sector: they are cautious, they do not feel so great, they are not lending," said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed income strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. "At the margins, add it to the case for further easing by the RBA."
Local Currency
The Australian dollar hovered near a three-month low, trading at $ 1.0298 at 04:35 in Sydney. Traders are pricing in a 91 percent chance the RBA will reduce borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point at the next policy meeting showed a Credit Suisse Group AG index.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry today called on the RBA to cut rates by half a percentage point to arrest declining competitiveness and "breakthrough" low business and consumer confidence.
"History shows that delays or timidity to adjust monetary policy when structural changes such as the high dollar and lower competitiveness is to embed themselves in our economy are costly impact on business viability and jobs," Peter Anderson, chief executive officer of accidents said in a statement.
Government figures tomorrow are expected to show unemployment rose to 5.3 percent in March from 5.2 percent a month earlier, according to the median of 24 economists survey by Bloomberg. Employers probably added 6,500 jobs, opinion polls showed that nearly a third of the average monthly employment growth over the past decade.
Home Loans
Today's mortgage report showed the total value of loans fell 1.3 percent to $ 20.3 billion ($ 20.8 billion) in February.
The value of loans to owner-occupied housing fell 4 percent, according to the report. The value of loans to investors who plan to rent or resell homes advanced 4.4 percent.
First home buyers accounted for 17.2 percent of dwellings financed in February, down from 20.3 percent in January and more than 16 percent a year earlier, the report shows. It was the steepest decline since February 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Home-loan approvals rose in nine months to december, before falling a revised 1.1 percent in January, today's report showed.
"We had this kind of modest recovery through a lot last year and was assisted by some stamp duty concessions for first home buyers in New South Wales and some grants in Queensland," RBC's Ong said with reference to two Australian states . "However, there appears to be fading, and the data are consistent with it."
Biggest Banks
Home loan growth may be weakened further by Australia's four largest banks raised standard variable mortgage rates independently of RBA in February, drawing criticism from the government. The central bank has said that competition for deposits, later covered-bond sales and the cost of swapping funds raised offshore in Australian dollars to the price paid lenders to raise money.
"Housing market conditions remain soft," with preliminary data show "that housing prices have fallen slightly in early 2012," the central bank said in its Financial Stability Review released last month.
Today's consumer confidence report showed the sentiment index fell 1.6 percent to 94.5 in April, the weakest reading since August. The Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) and Melbourne Institute survey was taken April 2 to 5 and involved 1,200 consumers.
"Straight Talk"
"Reserve Bank disappointed many in the last week by not supplying a needed rate cut," Bill Evans, Westpac's chief economist, said in a statement, noting that confidence among borrowers fell 5.1 percent. "The results of this investigation should send a very clear message to the Reserve Bank that Australia needs lower interest rates."
Government will maintain the central bank's independence and resist control of the local currency, said Finance Minister Penny Wong in an Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio interview in reaction to a union boss calls for intervention to help struggling farmers.
"With regard to a proposal that you Peg the dollar or intervene in the interest rate, the government will not do it," Wong said today. "The settings have served Australia well, including through the investment boom that includes independent Reserve Bank to raise interest rates and the floating dollar."
Paul Howes, national secretary of the Australian Workers Union, said the RBA has consistently made the wrong call in setting rates and that high borrowing costs spur currency.
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Wednesday, April 11, 2012
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